Assessment of Climate Predictions for the Oued Laou watershed in Northern Morocco: A comparison of two predictive models

Abstract

Focusing on the Oued Laou watershed, this study presents an innovative approach to simulate daily precipitation over a 35-year period in northern Morocco. We used the SARIMAX (AutoRegressive Seasonal Moving Average with Exogenous Variables) model and combined its potential with the Python programming language to achieve these Predictions. The SARIMAX model is an advanced time series analysis tool that integrates exogenous, autoregressive, seasonal and integrated variables. This model is capable of accurately predicting daily, monthly and annual precipitation averages for the study period. The climate projections obtained suggest that precipitation in the study area will decrease and it’s accompanied by increasing temperatures. This could have significant impacts on ecosystems, water resources and the agricultural sector. This study provides essential information for a better understanding of the particular climatic trends in northern Morocco. It provides a sound basis for making informed decisions on the sustainable management of natural resources. This information will be essential in anticipating and mitigating the effects of climate change, particularly with regard to precipitation and its potential impacts it could have on the environment and agriculture.