article · Cogent Economics & Finance
An analysis of Somalia's economic data spanning 1991 to 2022 demonstrates how key demographic, technological, and environmental factors influence the country's long-term economic performance. Using econometric modelling to evaluate short-run and long-run interactions, the investigation highlights that rising temperatures and high unemployment rates exert significant negative pressures on economic expansion. Conversely, urbanisation demonstrates a clear positive association with economic output. While internet usage exhibits a statistically insignificant effect within the primary baseline model, additional robustness tests generally confirm a positive long-term connection between digital connectivity and growth. To foster sustainable economic progress, policy interventions must focus on targeted climate adaptation strategies, structured employment generation, technical skills training, managed urban development, and substantial investment in digital and communication infrastructure across the nation.
Understanding how environmental stress, demographic shifts, and technology intersect is vital for fragile economies. By proving that temperature increases and joblessness directly erode growth while urban centres and connectivity stimulate it, this evidence helps policymakers and development organisations prioritise investments in climate resilience, workforce training, and digital infrastructure to build sustainable economic stability.
The abstract does not indicate a direct commercialisation pathway or specific commercial product. The findings provide macroeconomic evidence intended primarily for public sector policymakers, international development partners, and infrastructure planners designing digital connectivity programmes, urban management strategies, and climate adaptation initiatives. As an econometric assessment, the research remains early-stage evidence rather than an applied commercial technology.
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This study examines the impact of urbanization, unemployment, information and communication technology and climate change on Somalia’s economic growth using annual data from 1991–2022. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was employed to estimate the short-run and long-run relationships, while FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR estimators are used to verify the robustness of the long-run results, alongside Granger causality analysis. The findings reveal a stable long-run relationship, with temperature and unemployment exerting significant negative effects on economic growth, whereas urbanization has a significant positive effect. Internet shows a positive but statistically insignificant effect in the ARDL model, although robustness estimators generally support a positive long-run association. Based on these findings, the study recommends strengthening climate adaptation measures, implementing employment creation and skills development programs, promoting sustainable urbanization, and expanding digital infrastructure and ICT capacity to foster sustainable economic growth in Somalia.
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DOI: 10.1080/23322039.2026.2719115
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