article · Water
Hydrological modelling of the Melka Kuntrie subbasin evaluates the impacts of future climate projections across periods spanning 2021 to 2100. Rising temperatures are projected to increase evapotranspiration across all assessed scenarios, leading to heightened water stress for rainfed agriculture, although higher minimum temperatures will help protect crops from chilling damage. Most projections indicate substantial increases in rainfall and streamflow during both annual periods and major rainy seasons. Under high-emission scenarios, annual rainfall and streamflow could rise substantially, elevating the risk of flashfloods. Conversely, one model projects reduced streamflow, which would worsen existing water shortages during the minor rainy season. Because the subbasin currently lacks adequate hydraulic and irrigation infrastructure, implementing water harvesting during the major rainy season is identified as vital for boosting water management capacity and mitigating flood risks.
The Melka Kuntrie subbasin faces severe climate vulnerabilities, swinging between water scarcity and flashflood hazards. Without adequate hydraulic infrastructure, local agriculture and communities remain exposed to shifting seasonal rains and temperature extremes. Understanding these hydrological shifts allows planners to prepare targeted interventions, such as seasonal water storage, safeguarding agricultural livelihoods and improving water security in an area prone to climate-driven disruptions.
This early-stage modelling research provides baseline hydrological projections that could inform the planning and design of water-harvesting systems, flood defences, and irrigation infrastructure. The primary beneficiaries and users are regional water resource authorities, civil engineering planners, and agricultural policymakers. The work sits at an analytical, pre-implementation stage, offering evidence to justify and guide capital investments in water management facilities rather than presenting a deployable commercial technology.
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Assessing future challenges in water resources management is crucial to the Melka Kuntrie (MK) subbasin suffering water shortage. Impact assessments are evaluated by the HBV hydrological model with six scenarios, including two GCMs of AR4-A2 and two GCMs of AR5-RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for the time periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. Evapotranspiration is expected to increase under all scenarios—due to rising temperature—and induce more water stress on rainfed agriculture of the area. However, the increase in the monthly minimum temperature is beneficial to crops against chilling damages. Five out of six projections show significant increases of rainfall and streamflow in both annual and major rainy seasons, except ECHAM-A2. Annual rainfall (streamflow) is expected to increase by 38% (23%) and 57% (49%) during 2021–2050 and 2071–2100, respectively, under RCP8.5 scenarios. Greater flashflood risk is a concern because of the projected increase in streamflow. The projection of decreased streamflow with ECHAM-A2 will exacerbate the existing water shortage, especially in the minor rainy season. Water harvesting during the major rainy season would be vital to enhance water management capacities and reduce flashflood risks. Lacking sufficient hydraulic and irrigation infrastructures, the MK subbasin will be more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.
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DOI: 10.3390/w12051308
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