Assessing Current and Future Soil Erosion Risks in the Lakhdar Watershed (Morocco) Using RUSLE and CMIP6 Climate Projections

Abstract

Soil erosion represents a major threat to agricultural sustainability, soil fertility, and hydrological functioning in mountainous regions. These challenges are particularly pronounced in the Central High Atlas of Morocco, where complex topography, marked climatic variability, and intensive human activities accelerate degradation processes. This study evaluates current and future soil erosion dynamics in the Lakhdar watershed, located in the Oum Er-Rbia basin using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) coupled with high-resolution climate projections from CMIP6 models. Spatially distributed data on rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, topography, land cover, and conservation practices are integrated to quantify present erosion rates and identify areas most susceptible to degradation. Future scenarios assess the influence of projected changes in precipitation regimes on erosion dynamics over the coming decades. By identifying current erosion hotspots and anticipating future risks, this study informs targeted soil conservation interventions, supports sustainable land management strategies, and contributes to preserving soil functions, water resources, and ecosystem services. The findings emphasize the need to coordinate policy and community actions, integrating both socio-economic dimensions and local knowledge, to strengthen and support climate adaptation in vulnerable mountainous areas.Keywords: CMIP6 models, Morocco, RUSLE, Soil erosion risk, Sustainable land management.