Assessing Commercial Sugarcane Irrigators’ Intentions to Adapt Water-Use Behaviour in Response to Climate Variability in South Africa

Abstract

The scarcity of water resources in South Africa remains a considerable challenge for water users. This study evaluated the impact of climate variability on the adaptive water-use behaviour of sugarcane producers by identifying the factors influencing their adaptation decisions. A survey, the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), and structural equation modelling (SEM) were used to achieve this objective. The study involved 54 sugarcane producers from the Impala Irrigation Scheme, selected through random sampling. Socio-economic profiles revealed a largely male, older demographic with varied education levels and farm characteristics. Results indicated that attitude (β = 0.349, p < 0.1) and subjective norms (β = 0.281, p < 0.05) significantly influenced farmers’ intentions to adapt, while perceived behavioural control had no significant effect (β = 0.051, p > 0.1). These findings suggest that improving farmers’ attitudes and strengthening social support systems can enhance their intentions to adopt adaptive strategies. However, the model’s explanatory power (R² = 0.276) suggests that other unexamined factors may also influence farmers’ adaptive intentions, highlighting the need for further research. Overall, our findings suggest that interventions targeting attitudes, social support, and resource access can improve adaptive behaviours.