Area expansion dominates global oil crop production especially for more pollinator-dependent crops

Abstract

Over the past six decades, global oil crop production has expanded substantially to meet escalating demands for food, feed, and biofuels. However, studies have often overlooked the relative contribution underlying this production growth, and how they vary among crops with contrasting level of pollinator dependence. This study quantified the relative contributions of area expansion, yield improvement and structural adjustment to global oil crop production growth for 15 major oil crops from 1961 to 2023, employing a Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition approach. We compared production growth pathways among oil crops classified into two groups with relatively higher and lower pollinator dependence based on established criteria. Over this period, global oil crop production has increased by 789%, with production becoming increasingly dominated by a few crops, notably soybean, rapeseed and oil palm. Both production and yield growth were greater among the relatively lower pollinator-dependent crops, whereas relatively higher pollinator-dependent crops exhibited greater contributions from cultivated area expansion. The decomposition analysis reveals area expansion was the primary driver of overall production growth (52%), particularly for higher pollinator-dependent crops (61%). In contrast, production growth in lower pollinator-dependent crops was more evenly attributed to area expansion (34%), yield improvement (34%), and structural adjustment (32%). These results demonstrate that the long-term expansion of global oil crop production has been predominantly area-driven, particularly for higher pollinator-dependent crops showing a greater contribution from area expansion than relatively lower pollinator-dependent crops. These contrasting production growth patterns highlights potential tensions between agricultural expansion and sustainable land use. Our findings highlight the importance of considering pollination services in efforts to achieve sustainable agricultural development and long-term food security.