Application of Time-Series Analysis and Expert Judgment in Modeling and Forecasting Blood Donation Trends in Zimbabwe

Abstract

A SARIMA model can be used to predict the flow of blood donations in Zimbabwe.The seasonal blood donation pattern peaks in the months of March, June/July, and September.The donations troughs are in the months of April, August, December, and January. These are the months coinciding with school holidays in Zimbabwe.Both the SARIMA and ETS models provided similar forecasts, but measures of fit and expert knowledge gave a slight preference to the <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>SARIMA</mml:mi><mml:mspace></mml:mspace><mml:mrow><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mn>1</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mn>1</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mn>2</mml:mn><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mrow><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mn>0</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mn>1</mml:mn><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mn>1</mml:mn><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mn>12</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math> model in predicting the flow of blood donations in Zimbabwe.These model results are useful for guiding allocation of blood donation resources and blood donation drive timing.