Analyzing the extent and drivers of land use/land cover change in Southwestern Ethiopia

Abstract

Understanding the extent of land use and land cover (LULC) change and its drivers is crucial for modelling future dynamics and management strategies that avert the decline of natural resources. This study investigates the extent and drivers of LULC changes from forest to agriculture in Southwestern Ethiopia between 1994 and 2021. Remote sensing data from multispectral Landsat imagery, including Landsat 5 (TM), Landsat 7 (ETM+), and Landsat 8/9 (OLI/TIRS), were used to detect and quantify LULC changes. Survey data was employed to identify the core and potential drivers influencing LULC change, utilizing the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework. Findings indicated that forest cover decreased from 40,110.2 ha in 1994 to 35,631.8 ha in 2003, 32,969.5 ha in 2015 and 28,763.0 ha in 2021. This accounts for about 28.3% decreases in the forest cover over the past 27 years. Survey result indicates that LULC change is triggered by the interplay of several drivers. These drivers are related to socioeconomic, environmental, policy and institutional, and technological factors. Specifically, high population growth, agricultural land expansion, settlements, livestock grazing, and clearing of tree for woodfuel were the primary drivers of LULC change as reported by the surveyed respondents. The findings underscore the urgent need for targeted interventions by policymakers, development practitioners, and industrial players in Southwestern Ethiopia to mitigate the ongoing deforestation and land degradation. These insights can inform sustainable land management strategies locally and globally, contributing to the broader scientific discourse on balancing development and natural resource conservation.