Analysis of household resilience to food insecurity in the context of conflict and drought in South Wollo Zone, Ethiopia

Abstract

The research analyzed household resilience to food insecurity in the context of conflict and drought and identified key determinants of food security loss in the South Wollo zone of the Amhara region, Ethiopia. A descriptive design complemented by a quasi-experimental Difference-in-Difference approach was employed to analyze data from 422 randomly selected households, supplemented with literature reviews and data from key informants and focus group participants. Resilience Index Measurement and Analysis (RIMA) and thematic analysis were used for quantitative and qualitative data. The research shows that access to basic services, assets, adaptive capacity, and social safety nets contributed 21.96%, 27.7%, 31.34%, and 19.0% to resilience capacity prior to conflict. Post-conflict, assets contributed 60.55%, while access to basic services was no longer significant. The resilience capacity index declined from 45.1 to 38.8. Households with high conflict exposure experienced a 7.85-point greater decline compared to 3.32 points for low-exposure households ( p < 0.01), while drought exposure showed no statistically significant differential impact. Livestock ownership, agricultural index, work ratio, and number of crops cultivated were significant determinants of food security loss. The study recommends prioritizing livestock and agricultural investment, promoting livelihood diversification, ensuring uninterrupted assistance, and strengthening community-based support mechanisms in conflict-affected areas.