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Analysis of Forest Cover Change and Its Drivers in Biodiversity Hotspot Areas of the Semien Mountains National Park, Northwest Ethiopia

In plain language

Long-term monitoring of environmental shifts in and around Ethiopia's Semien Mountains National Park shows substantial landscape degradation between 1984 and 2020. Satellite imagery and local surveys reveal that forest cover fell by approximately 31 percent, equating to an annual loss of over 900 hectares, alongside decreases in grasslands. In contrast, land dedicated to cultivation rose by 159 percent, bare ground surged by 220 percent, and built-up land expanded by 366 percent. Over the 36-year assessment period, 62 percent of the study area underwent land-use transitions. The principal drivers identified include rapid population growth, agricultural expansion, heightened demand for fuelwood, livestock pressure, and forest fires. These transitions undermine biodiversity, local livelihoods, and regional ecosystem services, indicating an urgent need for participatory forest management strategies.

Key takeaways

  • Forest cover in the Semien Mountains National Park area declined by approximately 31 percent between 1984 and 2020.
  • Cultivated land, bare land, and built-up areas expanded substantially over the same 36-year span.
  • Around 62 percent of the total area experienced land-use transitions during the study period.
  • The primary drivers of deforestation are population growth, agricultural expansion, fuelwood collection, livestock pressure, and forest fires.

Why it matters

The loss of critical forest resources jeopardises unique biodiversity, accelerates ecological degradation, and threatens the livelihoods of local communities that rely on these ecosystems. Identifying the exact patterns and drivers of land conversion enables park authorities, local communities, and policy makers to design targeted interventions and participatory management programmes that balance environmental protection with essential community needs.

Commercialisation angle

The abstract does not indicate a commercialisation pathway or direct technology transfer application. However, the remote sensing datasets and socio-economic findings provide an empirical basis that environmental planners, conservation agencies, and non-governmental organisations can use to design resource-management interventions and sustainable forestry programmes. This research represents analytical, observational work rather than a marketable product or commercial tool.

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Abstract

Forests provide multiple ecosystem services ranging from local livelihoods and socio-economic benefits to global ecological services. Despite these benefits, human activities have put immense strain on forest resources, resulting in forest degradation, impoverishment of the environment, and loss of livelihoods. Hence, monitoring forest cover change and identifying its drivers are essential for developing sustainable forest management strategies that restore forest resources and ecosystem services. This study examined the trends of forest cover changes and its drivers in and around the Semien Mountains National Park, Northwest Ethiopia, from 1984 to 2020. Data from Landsat satellite images of 1984, 1996, 2008, and 2020 were used for forest cover mapping and quantifying the changes using remote sensing techniques. A household survey and key informant interviews were also used to identify the drivers of forest cover change. Results showed an overall decline in forest cover and grasslands while cultivated lands, bare lands and built-up areas have registered gains in the study area. The percentage area under forests declined by about 31% (33,084 ha) over the past 36 years. This loss translates to an annual average forest loss of about 1.02% (919 ha). Conversely, cultivated land, bare land, and built-up areas have experienced an increase of about 159% (33,387 ha), 220% (10,121 ha), and 366% (6356 ha), respectively, over the last 36 years. Analysis of the 36-year change detection matrix revealed that about 62% of the study area experienced a transition, of which 21% and 41% were attributable to net change and swap change, respectively. The observed reduction in forest cover was driven by agricultural expansion, population growth, growing demand for fuelwood, livestock pressure, and forest fires. Such drastic changes in forest cover have a detrimental impact on the community’s well-being, biodiversity, climate, and the availability of forest ecosystem services. Thus, the study recommends concerted efforts by stakeholders to develop participatory forest management and public awareness that consider the co-existence of nature conservation and sustainable livelihoods.

Research topics

  • Land Use and Ecosystem Services
  • Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
  • Rangeland Management and Livestock Ecology

Sustainable Development Goals

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DOI: 10.3390/su15043001

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