article · International Journal of Environmental Sciences Development & Sustainability
Thunderstorms pose operational challenges to aviation. This study analysed thirty years of data from 1991 to 2020 to assess the trend of thunderstorm occurrences and their influence on flight operations at Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport in Abuja, Nigeria. Using records from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency and the Nigerian Airspace Management Agency, the analysis applied descriptive statistics, correlation, and linear regression. The findings reveal a slight downward trend in annual thunderstorm events over time, with a negative regression slope of -0.0643 and an R-squared value of 0.0023. Although a relationship between thunderstorm occurrences and overall flight operations was examined at a 95 percent confidence level, it was not statistically significant. Because comprehensive assessments were constrained by missing records on cancellations, delays, and diversions, the study highlights the need for aviation authorities to build robust operational databases.
Adverse weather directly affects aviation efficiency and passenger safety. By analysing three decades of meteorological and operational data at a major transport hub, this work provides empirical insight into local thunderstorm patterns. It also underscores an urgent operational need for transport authorities to maintain unified and detailed records of weather-related disruptions to guide future infrastructure and air traffic management.
The abstract does not indicate an explicit commercialisation pathway or near-market application. However, the identified shortfall in documentation suggests an operational use case for aviation data management software and record-keeping platforms. Aviation authorities and airport operators could adopt such systems to monitor flight diversions, delays, and meteorological events, though the findings remain at the level of observational baseline research.
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his study evaluates the influence and trend of thunderstorms on flight operations at Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja, Nigeria, from 1991 to 2020. This research employed secondary data on thunderstorm occurrences from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) and flight operations data from the Nigerian Airspace Management Agency (NAMA), both at Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja. The statistical analyses employed were line graphs, tables, simple correlation, and descriptive statistics. Simple linear regression was used to establish the influence and trend of thunderstorm occurrence values for the study area. The changes in the (number of years) (x) are associated with changes in the (thunderstorm occurrences) (y). The negative slope of -0.0643 indicates that as the independent variable (x) increases by one unit, the number of thunderstorm occurrences (y) decreases by approximately 0.0643 units. In other words, there is a negative relationship between the number of years (x) and the number of annual thunderstorm occurrences (y), suggesting that as the value of x increases, thunderstorm occurrences (y) tend to decrease. The y-intercept is the value of y when x is equal to 0. In this case, when x is zero, the number of thunderstorm occurrences (y) is expected to be approximately 240. This intercept represents the estimated baseline number of thunderstorm occurrences when the R-squared value is 0.0023. The results showed that there is a relationship between thunderstorm occurrences and flight operations at a 95% confidence level, although the relationship is not statistically significant (p>0.05). Recommendations were based on the fact that insufficient data on other parameters, such as flight delays, flight cancellations, and flight diversions, are due to inadequate record-keeping. Therefore, there is a need for all aviation organizations concerned to develop a grassroots information database and keep proper records of every flight operation activity.
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DOI: 10.68086/nkwd3061
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