Agroecological-based modeling of meteorological drought at 12-month time scale in the Western Cape Province of South Africa

Abstract

Abstract To mitigate the effects of drought in water-stressed agro-ecological zones (AEZs), it is crucial to implement efficient monitoring of drought characteristics and establish proactive water-use strategies. The Western Cape (WC) province is being confronted with an escalating threat of diminished water availability due to unsustainable human activities. The objective of this study was to assess the spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological drought within a 12-month timescale in the WC province of South Africa spanning from 1980 to 2020. The University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit provided precipitation datasets from fifteen stations across the six AEZs of the WC province. These datasets were processed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The Mann–Kendall (M–K) test was used to analyze the precipitation trend and SPI values at a significance level of p < 0.05. The results indicated substantial negative trends in annual precipitation across all AEZs. An examination of seasonal precipitation patterns revealed a rise in summer precipitation in subtropical cool-arid regions and subtropical warm semi-arid regions, with increases of 0.4 and 0.2 mm/year, respectively. Conversely, the overall annual precipitation trend fell by -1.0 mm/year in both AEZs. The SPI values consistently fell within the range of -2 to 0 in the subtropical warm-arid, subtropical cool-arid, and subtropical cool-arid zones. Conversely, the SPI values were consistently positive in the subtropical warm-arid, subtropical cool-humid, and subtropical warm-humid zones. This finding suggests that there will be persistent drought conditions that will affect agricultural production, surface flows in rivers, and groundwater levels across the WC province.