A novel SWAT-based framework to integrate climate and LULC scenarios for predicting hydrology and sediment dynamics in the watersheds of Mediterranean ecosystems

Abstract

Understanding the interplay between climate change and land use/land cover (LULC) dynamics is critical for sustainable resource management, particularly in vulnerable Mediterranean ecosystems. This study introduces a novel framework integrating the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with future LULC and climate scenarios to predict hydrology and sediment dynamics in the 9th April watershed, a data-scarce river basin catchment in northern Morocco. By exploring four temporal scenarios up to 2050, the study comprehensively analyses erosion and water yield dynamics under changing environmental conditions. The framework employs robust calibration and validation using five statistical metrics, including Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE), with NSE as the objective function. Sensitivity analysis identifies critical parameters such as bulk density (SOL_BD), curve number (CN2), and soil evaporation compensation factor (ESCO), which govern water retention and runoff. For sediment transport, parameters like soil erodibility (USLE_K) and supporting practice factor (USLE_P) significantly influence deposition rates, projected to decrease from 49.6 t/ha/year to 16 t/ha/year under Scenario 4. This research demonstrates the novelty of integrating climate and LULC projections in a single modeling framework for Mediterranean drainage basins, offering insights into adaptive water management and erosion control strategies. The results highlight key vulnerabilities and adaptive opportunities, emphasizing the global applicability of this approach for data-scarce regions experiencing similar challenges. This study provides a predictive tool to address gaps in understanding hydrological and sediment dynamics under future climate and land-use change, providing practical insights for policymakers and resource managers. By identifying the key drivers of erosion and water yield, the results will support targeted interventions to enhance climate resilience and the sustainable management of land and water resources. The adaptability of the framework highlights its potential as a benchmark for addressing environmental challenges in climate-sensitive ecosystems worldwide. Future research should refine these models by incorporating socio-economic factors and stakeholder engagement to ensure practical application in decision-making.