A hybrid deep learning framework for solar irradiation prediction based on regional satellite images and data

Abstract

Abstract Accurate prediction of solar irradiation, particularly Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance (DHI), is essential for optimizing solar energy systems. This paper presents a hybrid framework that integrates satellite imagery and satellite-derived data to improve the precision of DHI forecasts. Two key datasets were employed: ground-based Solar Irradiation Measurement (SRM) and satellite-based Solar Irradiation (SSR). The proposed methodology utilizes machine learning models along two paths. The first path processes satellite imagery using advanced techniques, including pixel imputation with a modified Random Forest (RF) and Generative Adversarial Network (GAN), noisy region detection with Self-Organizing Maps (SOM), and noise removal through a Latent Diffusion Model (LDM). The second path handles tabular data through a diffusion probabilistic model designed for missing data imputation. These features are then merged and fed into a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, enhanced to capture seasonality and trends for accurate DHI predictions. The paper makes significant contributions by introducing a robust hybrid framework that leverages both satellite imagery and tabular data, incorporating novel preprocessing methods such as GAN-based pixel imputation and diffusion-based noise removal. The LSTM model is further adapted to handle seasonal and trend components, resulting in enhanced DHI forecasting accuracy. The proposed model demonstrates superior performance, achieving a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 8.170 W/m 2 , Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 1.749 W/m 2 , Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.693 W/m 2 , and an R-squared value of 2.574, significantly outperforming conventional methods such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and traditional LSTM models. Additionally, the model records a low Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.8183% and a computation time of 35.4 s, highlighting its efficiency. These results contribute to more accurate and reliable solar energy resource management by offering enhanced DHI forecasts across various spatial and temporal scales.