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A fuzzy decision-making model for optimal design of solar, wind, diesel-based RO desalination integrating flow-battery and pumped-hydro storage: Case study in Baltim, Egypt

2021114 citationsOpen accessKafr el-Sheikh University

In plain language

A conceptual design and decision-making model evaluates stand-alone hybrid renewable energy systems to power a large-scale reverse osmosis desalination plant in Baltim, Egypt. The model assesses combinations of solar photovoltaic arrays, wind turbines, and diesel generators coupled with either zinc-bromine flow batteries or pumped-hydro energy storage. Using HOMER software alongside an integrated Fuzzy-AHP and Fuzzy-VIKOR framework, multiple system configurations were appraised across ten economic, energetic, and ecological criteria. The top-ranked configuration combines a 328-kW solar array, five 20-kW wind turbines, a 100-kW diesel generator, 112 batteries, and a 235-kW converter. This optimal design achieves a 95.55 percent renewable energy share, produces roughly 25,426 kilograms of carbon dioxide annually, and delivers an electricity cost of 0.101 dollars per kilowatt-hour with a payback period of 1.1 years.

Key takeaways

  • A hybrid setup using solar, wind, diesel, and battery storage proved the most viable configuration for powering the desalination plant.
  • The optimal system configuration achieves a 95.55 percent renewable energy share with a payback period of just 1.1 years.
  • The lowest cost of electricity achieved among the alternatives evaluated is 0.101 dollars per kilowatt-hour.
  • Future load growth and lower interest rates negatively affect project investment, while falling energy storage costs improve financing viability.

Why it matters

Clean water production through desalination is traditionally energy-intensive and heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Demonstrating that an off-grid hybrid system can achieve over 95 percent renewable power at low cost provides a practical path to decarbonise municipal and industrial water supplies. This approach helps planners balance environmental impacts and economic returns when selecting clean infrastructure for coastal communities.

Commercialisation angle

This model provides an applied planning tool for desalination operators, project developers, and renewable energy investors designing off-grid utilities. The research represents applied conceptual design and feasibility modelling rather than a deployed physical facility, sitting at an early planning stage. It equips decision-makers with concrete component sizing and financial benchmarks to de-risk investment in hybrid solar, wind, and storage infrastructure for water treatment.

AI-generated from the published abstract. Always read the original work before citing.

Abstract

This paper aims to propose a conceptual design model for sustainable hybrid renewable stand-alone energy system (HRSES) to meet the electricity demand of a large-scale reverse osmosis desalination plant in Baltim, Egypt. The model investigates the feasibility of different HRSES alternatives and develop a fuzzy-based multicriteria decision-making model for meticulously selecting the optimal energy solution. Both zinc-bromine flow battery and turbine-pumped hydro energy storage technologies are integrated independently with wind, solar, and diesel power sources. Firstly, the proposed model uses HOMER software to execute an energy-economic-ecological optimization analysis for studying the practicability and components sizing of nine HRSES alternatives. Second, an integration between Fuzzy-AHP and Fuzzy-VIKOR decision-making methods is executed to choose the best design considering ten performance criteria. In the second stage, the fuzzy environment is engaged to expedite decision-makers to express their ratings in linguistic terms and to achieve more sensible and accurate results. Among ten feasible alternatives, the results reveal that the optimal system consists of 5 × 20-kW wind turbines, 328-kW photovoltaic array, 100-kW diesel generator, 112 batteries and 235-kW converter. This system has the best economic performance among all alternatives with least NPC, COE, and payback-period of $1,048,046, 0.101$/kWh and 1.1 yr, respectively. Besides, it has a treasured share of renewable of 95.55%; hence, it produces a realistic CO2 of 25,426.46 kg/year. Lastly, the sensitivity analysis illuminates that the future load growth and low-interest rate hurt upcoming investments while the projected reduction in the cost of energy storages has an encouraging influence on financing decisions.

Research topics

  • Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems
  • Energy and Environment Impacts
  • Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies

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DOI: 10.1016/j.enconman.2021.113962

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