A Comparative Synthesis of Forest Vulnerability Assessments in the Southern Mediterranean With a Focus on Morocco and Regional Perspectives

Abstract

The vulnerability of Mediterranean forests results from the combined effects of climatic stressors and human pressures. In Morocco, recurrent droughts, wildfires, and rapid land-use change interact with complex governance challenges. This chapter assesses the condition and trends of major forest types such as argan, cedar, cork oak, thuya, and juniper, while placing Morocco in a regional context that includes Algeria, Tunisia, and Spain. Vulnerability is analyzed through an integrated framework linking exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity using ecological and institutional indicators. Despite advances in remote sensing, modeling, and genetic-based restoration, progress is limited by fragmented information systems and weak incorporation of local knowledge. Strengthening resilience requires better interinstitutional coordination, adaptive silviculture, improved data governance, and innovative financing. A strategic roadmap outlines priorities for multi-scale monitoring and a Mediterranean forest resilience toolbox.